We are, as you would expect, often asked about the state of the watch world. And of course which watches to buy, or bring in, or distribute. We are asked by friends and strangers, companies and journalists and investment advisors. We make these assessments quietly in our home country of the Philippines and usually more vocally and visibly when we are asked to publish our opinions in other watch industry hot zones and key markets.

All that though isn’t necessarily what we want to talk about. We have had the blessing and the support to be able to see inside a wonderful industry. It is as professional as much as it is personal. It is as global as it is local. It is driven as much by passion as it is by numbers. What we will be trying to do now is give everyone more insight into what we have seen, what we think, and why.

First thing. It the market overheated? Yes and no. Even within brands, yes and no. Take for example Seiko. Long under-appreciated now suddenly hot. In speaking with both collectors and regional and global company heads, the new watch market has much potential in the Philippines, the region, and the world. We saw this happening over the years, this increased interest and appreciation. We started seeing a few years ago that Seiko Japan was taking action to properly pay attention to their very unique position and identity. We saw (and foresaw) the indications of the move to take their tightly-controlled Japan-only pieces global and to redo their brand breadth and depth. And we will soon be seeing much more from them. Having said that though, we are seeing that the Philippines got a surprisingly large percentage of special pieces and editions (remember that almost all of this came in through external purchases) and that we are also somewhat seeing a cap on values. Meaning things may have settled for now.

Here is an interesting look into supply, demand, and pricing. The official local distribution channel hasn’t even begun to sell one of the most awaited pieces of the year of any brand. At the 2017 Baselworld Fair, Seiko introduced the recreation (the company officially called it the First Diver’s Re-Creation Limited Edition Ref SLA017) of their first-ever dive watch (what everyone calls the 62MAS). A special run of 2000 pieces pre-ordered and snapped up immediately by collectors. Now for some reason the local Seiko Facebook campaign tried to promote this coveted piece by saying you should use it if you feel “macho,” and people almost cancelled their order because of that. Plus they got their reference numbers wrong. Anyway, those watches are yet to be released officially locally but the market has already partially stabilized based on the grey-imported pieces. Note here the market price seems to have positioned higher than the SRPs (Suggested Retail Price) quoted for those buyers listed who have paid their down-payments and are waiting. The given window for delivery has not yet lapsed, so no problems there. End result is whoever bought this way should be getting the pieces at a price below last traded value.

Still Seiko is definitely positioned for more upward movement. So what we are talking about here is short-term stabilization of movement on an upward long-term graph perhaps, all within a particular product within a particular brand within a relatively niche industry.

Now look at the vintage pieces of the same brand, and remember the word “vintage” is used to confer value when sometimes something is just “old.” There is increased interest as well, and the worry here is that mainstream interest brings out pieces that would normally not be touched by enthusiasts and collectors. The halo watches get the market moving, but the good pieces are already off the market or trading high to a small group. This brings out lesser-quality pieces trying to ride on the wave more for money than love. It also brings in pieces that are hunted for, refurbished and then resold strictly for profit. And it is extremely hard to properly authenticate watches. You could have, for example, all branded parts that are not period or series correct. There are special markings and tell-tales that very few people even know exist. In the big global auctions we see some equipment you wouldn’t believe that come into play before the houses will even accept a piece or before a brand will accept or authenticate. This isn’t just watches though. The vintage Porsche market is way overheated, and because there are so few seriously significant cars available people are buying whatever they can get and driving up the price. And if you think the only was is up, look at markets like Detroit muscle cars and British roadsters. Money moves fast when it isn’t tied to something it loves.

The halo watches get the market moving, but the good pieces are already off the market or trading high to a small group. This brings out lesser-quality pieces trying to ride on the wave more for money than love. It also brings in pieces that are hunted for, refurbished and then resold strictly for profit.

So back to Seiko. I am hugely happy that finally you can walk into an authorized Philippine distributor or retailer and buy a Grand Seiko or a special edition. I said a few years ago that prices were too high on the secondary market but then Seiko started telegraphing its punches and they are moving up officially as well. So whether or not the market is currently priced too high or not, what we have said for years stands. There is a much larger and wider base of people who appreciate watches in general, and they haven’t even begun to hit the market seriously. But don’t take anyone’s comments as gospel. Get into things and learn, talk, think. Be prepared to make mistakes, be open to not following what everyone is doing and going your own way. The timepieces we can get our hands on now are awesome, but the times we can spend with all the different people are even better.